When is Iron Man supposed to drop out of the top 5 again?

Next weekend will see the releases of Don't Mess With the Zohan and Kung Fu Panda. Those two will be in the top two, and Indiana Jones and Sex and the City (it just occurred to me that a movie titled Indiana Jones and the Sex and the City would have appealed to pretty much every 13+ demographic) will round out the top four.

Whether or not Strangers will be able to stay ahead of Iron Man for a second weekend remains to be seen. Strangers should be making somewhere around 10m, I would guess (that's the general movie trend; I'm not studied enough on summer horror to know what the summer horror trend is). I'm not quite sure how much Iron Man will make next weekend, but 8-10m doesn't seem all that unlikely. At this point, it doesn't really compare all that well to last summer's 300m+ earners, since they all had sharper drops by this point. A look at their fifth weekends:

Transformers: 6m
Shrek the Third: 9m
Spider-Man 3: 7.6m
PotC: 7.2m

Box Office Mojo actually has Iron Man at 14 million for the weekend, which is more than I was expecting. I'm half expecting it to be a little too generous of an estimate, to be honest.

It doesn't hurt that a lot of people are going back to the theater to see it multiple times. It doesn't hurt that older people (retiree age "older," I mean) are coming out of the woodwork based on word of mouth. Heck, my septuagenarian grandparents went to see it this weekend, and they loved it--at least that's the word my grandmother used. I think my grandfather probably liked it because Iron Man doused an entire cell of what to his eye probably looked like "Mosslim turrists" in flames. He grew up at a time when it was the norm for the good guys (Cowboys) to shoot and kill scores of bad guys (Indians) all at once.

However you feel about the movie, it should be acknowledged that it is generally accepted by both critics and audiences as being the best event movie in theaters right now. This may dishearten you. It may not. If an infrequent moviegoer were to ask the casual/one-per-weekend moviegoer if s/he would recommend Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Caspian or Speed Racer, chances are most would reply that Iron Man is the movie to see. If you strongly dislike Iron Man, this may appear to be a "best of the worst" scenario--but it is still the most likely scenario.

Having just seen Iron Man, I agree with your theory. I enjoyed the hell out of it.

And I'm almost as simple as they come.

But, I hated Transformers, so, I'm not that simple.

Right?

RIGHT??

Quasar wrote:When is Iron Man supposed to drop out of the top 5 again?

Never.

Best. Movie (since Spider-Man 2). EVAR.

Thurston McQ wrote:Next weekend will see the releases of Don't Mess With the Zohan and Kung Fu Panda. Those two will be in the top two, and Indiana Jones and Sex and the City (it just occurred to me that a movie titled Indiana Jones and the Sex and the City would have appealed to pretty much every 13+ demographic) will round out the top four.

Whether or not Strangers will be able to stay ahead of Iron Man for a second weekend remains to be seen. Strangers should be making somewhere around 10m, I would guess (that's the general movie trend; I'm not studied enough on summer horror to know what the summer horror trend is). I'm not quite sure how much Iron Man will make next weekend, but 8-10m doesn't seem all that unlikely. At this point, it doesn't really compare all that well to last summer's 300m+ earners, since they all had sharper drops by this point. A look at their fifth weekends:

Transformers: 6m
Shrek the Third: 9m
Spider-Man 3: 7.6m
PotC: 7.2m

Box Office Mojo actually has Iron Man at 14 million for the weekend, which is more than I was expecting. I'm half expecting it to be a little too generous of an estimate, to be honest.

It doesn't hurt that a lot of people are going back to the theater to see it multiple times. It doesn't hurt that older people (retiree age "older," I mean) are coming out of the woodwork based on word of mouth. Heck, my septuagenarian grandparents went to see it this weekend, and they loved it--at least that's the word my grandmother used. I think my grandfather probably liked it because Iron Man doused an entire cell of what to his eye probably looked like "Mosslim turrists" in flames. He grew up at a time when it was the norm for the good guys (Cowboys) to shoot and kill scores of bad guys (Indians) all at once.

However you feel about the movie, it should be acknowledged that it is generally accepted by both critics and audiences as being the best event movie in theaters right now. This may dishearten you. It may not. If an infrequent moviegoer were to ask the casual/one-per-weekend moviegoer if s/he would recommend Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Caspian or Speed Racer, chances are most would reply that Iron Man is the movie to see. If you strongly dislike Iron Man, this may appear to be a "best of the worst" scenario--but it is still the most likely scenario.

Yeah, I was looking at the Iron Man take and all time 5th weekends. It is indeed showing very stong. Of course Shrek 2 is only behind Titanic and Star Wars all time, which tells you the viewing public is mainly idiots driven to spend money by their kids and anything with a Smashmouth song in it.

Anyway I have little doubt it will make $310-$320M area. I just hate the fact that some pre-fab cookie cutter story with some flashy CG instantly makes $300M these days. Used to be something more sacred to me. *sigh*

The Top Ten Estimates for the Weekend (estimated domestic totals in parentheses):

1. Kung Fu Panda -- $60,000,000 ($60,000,000)
2. You Don't Mess with the Zohan -- $40,000,000 ($40,000,000)
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull -- $22,805,000 ($253,026,000)
4. Sex and the City -- $21,310,000 ($99,269,000)
5. The Strangers -- $9,289,000 ($37,646,000)
6. Iron Man -- $7,522,000 ($288,893,000)
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian -- $5,527,000 ($125,846,000)
8. What Happens in Vegas -- $3,400,000 ($72,230,000)
9. Baby Mama -- $779,000 ($57,904,000)
10. Made of Honor -- $775,000 ($44,660,000)

* * *

Chances are we're between a week-and-a-half and two weeks from Snoop's overwhelmingly positive, 750-word-plus Attack of the Clones review. Still not sure exactly what effect Incredible Hulk's release will have on Iron Man--especially considering that it is due to lose some more screens next weekend. My let's-pretend-some-other -blockbuster-but-another-Marvel-property-were-being-released-next-weekend guess is that Iron Man will make 3.5-5 million from Monday to Thursday, and somewhere between 4-5.5 million, meaning that 296.4-299.4 by next Sunday would not have been unheard of. I suspect the Monday-Thursday box office will be more or less what it would have been, anyway. It's the weekend box office that's the trickier prediction. It may end up getting a boost of a few million dollars. It may not.

I hadn't really thought about The Incredible Hulk having any positive effect on Iron Man, but I suppose the Tony Stark cameo could spur some people to check it out again if they like Hulk. But, since Ipsilon brought this up in another thread, my interest has turned to Hulk predictions. I think some people still remember the last movie, which doesn't help, and I think the animation looks poor in the advertising for this one. On the other hand, it's got a lot of smashing, and the comments I've seen from people in response to articles and such seems to show a surprising amount of enthusiasm. I can't see this one opening near the earlier blockbusters of the summer, Indy and Iron Man, but I think it can beat Prince Caspian. I don't know if The Happening can steal much of its thunder, either, but I kinda doubt it. M. Night's name has lost a lot of its cache, I think. For The Incredible Hulk I'll guess $70M, and for The Happening, half that.

Jack's Sorrow wrote:For The Incredible Hulk I'll guess $70M...

And AAAAHHH helped!

But it's M. Night's first R rated movie! Doesn't that count for something?

I didn't know that: an R-rating usually curbs box office receipts, so I'm going to lower my estimate to $30M.

I haven't really been tracking the Incredible Hulk. I don't know what they've spent on advertising, but I do know they are pushing it pretty heavily. They "Hulked out" last night's episode of American Gladiators (saw some of it; it was pretty fun, and they had good ol' Lou Ferrigno [speaking of Lou, IMDb lists him as providing the "Voice of the Incredible Hulk" {with some audio manipulation, I'm sure}] there as a guest of honor), and they have done what I consider to be a very wise thing in making the new Hulk hands a durable cloth (no cracking and crumbling from wear).

We've been talking about the effect Hulk might have on Iron Man, but we haven't really talked about the effect Iron Man might have on Hulk. The majority of Iron Man's pretty large audience came away from it liking it, and I think their being put in a positive state of mind by it can only help Hulk, which already comes with a great deal more name recognition.

I did some looking around on-line, and found this at Forbes.com. Apparently, Marvel is under the impression that Iron Man's performance will help. (Note: This was written way back at the beginning of May. Things may have changed since then.)

They've been playing a symphonic variation on the television show's all-piano "Lonely Man Theme," which should have nostalgic appeal for potential older viewers. The older, WASP-y types also love the fuck out of Ed Norton (he's "arty"), so that should draw some people in, too.

It can only help the movie that it looks so obviously different from Ang Lee's movie. The 2002 movie has a small group of pretty devoted fans, but it is, again, a small group.

I'm not sure if Liv Tyler being in two major releases at once will have any effect on the box office. I doubt it. I also don't know how much business The Happening will take from it. I do know that The Strangers will probably hurt The Happening more than they were anticipating.

Ed Norton has also decided to descend from the heavens and promote the movie. He recently presented at the MTV movie awards with Liv Tyler, and he, Liv and Louis Leterrier (holy shit! I spelled it correctly!) recently did one of those "Unscripted" moviefone things together (view it here). So whether or not there was ever any bad blood (apparently, some of the movie's "meatier" scenes were cut for "Hulk Smash!"'s sake) between Norton and the studio, he has either put it behind him or has been reminded with a heavy air of litigiousness that he is under contract.

It is listed as being released on only 3,400+ theaters--around the same number of screens Zohan got. Indiana Jones and Kung Fu Panda both got 4,100+ screens, for comparison. Sex and the City was initially released on fewer than 3,300 screens, so it doesn't spell doom for a movie to be released on less than 4,000--especially when the movie is expected to be a decent midnight premiere performer. The problem the Hulk faces is one that was anticipated way back when the studios bought the mid-July time slot: theaters are already congested with well-performing summer movies. There just isn't room to give Incredible Hulk 4,000+ screens. If it performs at or above expectations (not sure what those are), Paramount and Marvel will buy it some more screens.

So, anyway, I'm not sure what I expect this movie to make. I think Jack's 70 million may be aiming a little high--but, then again, probably not by too much. I'd guess it would make somewhere between 52-62 million, but it wouldn't surprise me if it made as much as ten less than the lower of those two or ten more than the higher one. If I had to pick a single number, I'd go with 57 million--though I'm in no way married to it. I don't expect it to open as well as Kung Fu Panda, but I don't expect it to make too much less. I look forward to Thursday, when folks who are far better at predicting opening weekends than I throw their forecasts out there.

I think the Happening will under perform, but it is the only movie I plan on seeing this weekend, if I go at all!

My prediction:

1 - Hulk $65M
2 - Kung Fu Panda $34M
3 - The Happening $20M
4 - Zohan $20M
5 - Indy $10M

PS - Liv Tyler is lame and 9 out of 10 average people would not be able to pick her out of a line up with other B list actresses.

Sorry, she has just come to annoy me ever since FOTR

Now that Michelle Monaghan is getting a lot of work, people are going to be confusing her with Liv Tyler more and more.

It was me.

It was my 70 million.

I just want to be clear on that.

I just realized that your "AAAAHHH" is supposed to be a transliteration of the southern pronunciation of "I."

Before now, that whole post was a bit of a head-scratcher.

Where did you help? In the Hulk thread?

Thurston McQ wrote:Michelle Monaghan.

Yummy!

Eh.

*shrugs*

Thurston McQ wrote:I just realized that your "AAAAHHH" is supposed to be a transliteration of the southern pronunciation of "I."

Before now, that whole post was a bit of a head-scratcher.

Where did you help? In the Hulk thread?

Yep.

Sorry to be confusing. It's been a stressful couple days that you'll all have the privledge of hearing about, very soon.

Can someone else pick up this weekend's forecast/prediction wrangling?

I'm in over my head today.

Go to all the usual places: B.O. Mojo's "Derby," B.O. Report, B.O. Guru, B.O. Prophets.

Many thanks. I've glanced at the sites. The lowest estimate for Incredible Hulk, I think, was 53m, and the highest was 66m.

Thurston McQ wrote:Can someone else pick up this weekend's forecast/prediction wrangling?

I'm in over my head today.

Go to all the usual places: B.O. Mojo's "Derby," B.O. Report, B.O. Guru, B.O. Prophets.

Many thanks. I've glanced at the sites. The lowest estimate for Incredible Hulk, I think, was 53m, and the highest was 66m.

That's because I am a genius. As I stated a few days ago:

My prediction:

1 - Hulk $65M
2 - Kung Fu Panda $34M
3 - The Happening $20M
4 - Zohan $20M
5 - Indy $10M

Looks like estimates have Incredible Hulk's domestic weekend take at 54.5 millon.

The rest.

Iron Man had the smallest drop of any movie in the top ten (-31.4%), which leads me to believe Incredible Hulk's presence did end up boosting it a bit, after all. It should be noted that it is also the oldest movie in the top ten. It currently stands at an estimated 297.4 million.

The Happening did a little better than people were expecting it to on its first weekend. I can't help but think some of the people who went to see it did so out of a sense of overwhelming Schadenfreude.

Honors go to Box Office Report's Tyler Durden for coming closest with his estimates for the two new releases.

Iron Man's final weekend numbers are actually a good half million higher than estimated, making it almost certain to make it to $300M either Wednesday or Thursday (Thursday would be my guess). I'd been betting for weeks now that it would make the mark this coming weekend, so it's going to barely beat that. Indiana Jones 4 is unacceptably slowing its decline, dropping an amazingly small 35% this week, and is certain at this point to cross the $300M. It's in almost the exact same position that Iron Man was in two weeks ago, meaning it will probably take about three weeks for Indy to reach the milestone. Looking at it from that perspective, IM is likely to eek out a victory, since Indy has blown its box office lead in regards to its total box office compared to weekend performance, and IM has trended toward smaller weekend drops than Indy. Of course, that may be totally wrong, because Indy made about $2M a day last week, so its daily performance during its third week was higher than IM's was during its fourth week. It's a bit too close to call.

Here's a story about box office.

Wednesday's Domestic Box Office Returns (Current Domestic Totals in Parentheses):

1. THE INCREDIBLE HULK
$4,503,925 ($70,730,230)

2. KUNG FU PANDA
$4,191,439 ($129,790,915)

3. THE HAPPENING
$2,185,793 ($38,285,118)

4. YOU DON'T MESS WITH THE ZOHAN
$1,990,935 ($74,964,089)

5. SEX AND THE CITY
$1,647,387 ($124,319,097)

6. INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL
$1,478,470 ($280,951,091)

7. IRON MAN
$723,320 ($300,042,790)

8. THE STRANGERS
$591,225 ($47,095,075)

9. THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: PRINCE CASPIAN
$466,616 ($133,276,738)

10. WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS
$256,539 ($76,507,695)